AGA Releases 2026 NFL Betting Forecast Showing First Flat Season Since PASPA Overturn

The American Gaming Association released its annual NFL betting forecast on September 4, 2026, projecting $29.5 billion in legal U.S. sports betting handle for the full 2026 NFL season which encompasses preseason, regular season, playoffs, and the Super Bowl, and this total marks just a 0.3 percent increase from the prior year while representing the first season without meaningful growth since PASPA was overturned in 2018.

Breakdown of the Projected Handle

Data in the forecast breaks down the $29.5 billion across all stages of the NFL calendar with the bulk coming from the regular season and playoffs, while the trade group notes that legal sportsbooks operating under state licenses will capture this volume in jurisdictions where betting has been authorized since the Supreme Court decision. The modest growth rate stands in contrast to earlier post-PASPA seasons when double-digit percentage increases were common as more states launched regulated markets and operators expanded their offerings.

Historical Growth Patterns Since 2018

After PASPA fell in 2018, legal sports betting handle expanded rapidly each year as new states came online and consumer adoption climbed, yet the 2026 projection signals a clear slowdown because the overall market has matured in many jurisdictions and operators now face competition from unregulated alternatives that do not contribute to state tax rolls. Figures from previous AGA forecasts show consistent year-over-year gains through 2025, but the current report highlights how that trajectory has leveled off for the first time in the post-PASPA era.

Impact of Prediction Markets on Regulated Betting

The trade group attributes the stall to the rise of prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket which it describes as backdoor sports betting that has diverted more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025, and the report points to significant volume generated by underage users along with activity in states that have not legalized traditional sports betting. Industry estimates included in the forecast suggest prediction market NFL volume could reach $36.8 billion for the season, a figure that exceeds the projected legal handle and underscores the scale of the parallel market operating outside state regulatory frameworks.

Tax Revenue and Regulatory Concerns

State gaming authorities have collected substantial tax revenue from legal sportsbooks in recent years, yet the AGA report indicates that prediction markets have siphoned away a meaningful portion of that activity because participants can place wagers on event outcomes without the same licensing requirements or age verification standards that apply to licensed operators. The diversion of $1.3 billion in potential taxes since 2025 reflects both direct volume shifts and the fact that some bettors now split their activity between regulated platforms and prediction market sites depending on the type of wager and jurisdictional availability.

Market Volume Comparisons

When comparing the $29.5 billion legal handle projection against the $36.8 billion industry estimate for prediction market NFL volume, the data reveals that unregulated platforms could handle a larger share of total NFL-related wagering than state-licensed sportsbooks during the 2026 season, and this shift has prompted the AGA to call attention to enforcement gaps that allow prediction markets to operate in areas where sports betting remains restricted or heavily regulated. Observers note that the difference in scale between the two figures highlights how prediction markets have captured user interest through different product structures that include event contracts rather than traditional point spreads or moneylines.

Season Timeline and Release Context

The September 4, 2026 release date positions the forecast ahead of the NFL regular season kickoff, giving state regulators and industry stakeholders time to review the numbers before the bulk of the handle occurs, while the inclusion of preseason and Super Bowl figures provides a complete picture of the full calendar year activity that legal operators expect to process through their platforms. The report also notes that the 0.3 percent growth rate applies to the combined total across all NFL-related events rather than isolating any single segment of the season.

Conclusion

The American Gaming Association's 2026 NFL betting forecast documents a projected $29.5 billion legal handle with only 0.3 percent growth, attributes the flat performance to competition from prediction markets that have diverted over $1.3 billion in potential tax revenue since 2025, and includes industry estimates placing prediction market volume at $36.8 billion for the season, all of which reflects the current state of the U.S. sports betting landscape as of September 2026.